Utah's Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates

Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates for all Utah counties have been posted online here.

Each month, these rates are posted the Monday following the Unemployment Rate Update for Utah.

For more information about seasonally adjusted rates, read a DWS analysis here.

Next update scheduled for October 23rd.

Utah's Employment Situation for August 2017

Utah's Employment Situation for August 2017 has been released on the web.

Find the Current Economic Situation in its entirety here.

For charts and tables, including County Employment, go to the Employment and Unemployment page.

Next update scheduled for October 20th, 2017.

A Look at the Retail Trade Industry in Eastern Region

Consumer spending makes up around 68 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product. Consumer spending is individuals and families purchasing groceries, clothing, recreation, stocks, insurance, education and much more. The transactions cover a broad swath of economic activity.

Much of the nation’s consumer spending is captured via retail trade. A useful retail trade definition is “the re-sale (sale without transformation) of new and used goods to the general public, for personal or household consumption or utilization.”[1] Not all consumer spending is captured through retail trade transactions, but a large share is.

Broad-category examples of retail trade sectors are motor vehicle sales, furniture stores, electronic stores, building material stores, grocery stores, pharmacies, gas stations, clothing stores and department stores, among others.

Then there is the relatively new and emerging part of the retail trade sphere — non-store retailers. These are establishments that sell products on the internet. Examples include Amazon, Zappos, Overstock.com, or eBay. These types of retailers have grown rapidly in the past 15 years and their presence is reshaping the retail trade landscape.

Whereas in the past nearly all retail transactions were done through traditional brick-and-mortar stores, now a significant and growing segment is diverted to internet sales. The consumer shops online and FedEx (or like) delivers the product. One can see that the number of brick-and-mortar stores and the level of local sales across the country are being endangered by this economic evolution.

The brick-and-mortar reduction is beginning to show its economic presence in the United States employment numbers. While the U.S. economy is finally expanding at a healthy pace this side of the Great Recession, one of the few industries not rising with this tide is retail trade. While overall retail sales are increasing, employment is not.

Traditionally, as a population increases, retail trade employment grows simultaneously, since population growth and consumer spending volume is an integrated dynamic. If studied deeply, a certain ratio of retail trade employment growth spawned from population growth would emerge. Before the internet, the vast majority of all consumer sales occurred in the immediate community or region. But now, the internet is diverting these sales away from the local community — and with internet sales growing, its market share will increase.

We do not yet know how much brick-and-mortar erosion will eventually occur. And will such a phenomenon hit some areas more than others (e.g., urban vs. rural, or local vs. tourist spending)? These are touch points that economists will be watching as this internet sales phenomenon continues to grow within the national and Utah economies.

In light of this change, in this quarter’s Local Insights we are profiling retail trade employment throughout Utah’s local regions. This can offer a profile of where retail trade is now in a local economy, and possibly how much of the sector could become vulnerable to the internet-sales phenomenon.

All regions can be viewed through the Local Insights web portal. The following is a retail trade profile for the Eastern Region:

Non-store Taxable Sales Are Gaining, But Not as Fast as Employment. Why?

Taxable sales in non-store retail have not gained as a share of total taxable sales as quickly at the employment share has increased. This is primarily due to the fact that sales taxes are collected by the state of the purchaser, and then, only if the seller has a physical presence in that state. This means that when BackCountry.com sells a rug to someone outside of Utah, there is money coming into Utah (in terms of the jobs that the sale supports), but there is no sales tax coming in to Utah. The only non-store sales taxes captured in Utah are Utah consumers purchasing goods from retailers with a presence in Utah. Since large shares of sales by local online retailers are to customers in other states, it means that sales tax revenue lags compared to employment growth in the industry.

About NAICS

In order to explore the relationship between internet and brick-and-mortar retail we need to look at data grouped through the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) , which “is the standard used by federal statistical agencies in classifying business establishments.”[2] Stated simply, NAICS groups businesses together based upon what they do.

Hierarchical in nature, NAICS begins with a broad categorization and narrows its focus through subsector levels. As an example, the educational services sector includes all institutions focused on providing instruction and training. At the subsector level, the focus narrows to elementary schools, colleges and trade institutions, etc.

The broad sector known as retail trade includes several underlying categories, such as motor vehicle sales, furniture stores, electronic stores, building material stores, grocery stores, pharmacies, gas stations, clothing stores and department stores, among others.

Then there is the relatively new and emerging part of the retail trade sphere — non-store retailers. These are establishments that sell products primarily on the internet or through direct selling. Examples include Amazon, Overstock.com, Young Living and dōTERRA. These types of retailers have grown rapidly in the past 15 years and their presence is reshaping the retail trade landscape. We will look at an illustration of this in a later section.

Internet sales have increased dramatically. Data from the Federal Reserve shows that internet sales are 8.5 percent of total retail sales as of January 2017. Nationally, retail’s 2016 share of employment is 11.2 percent. It is important to note that NAICS classifies businesses by what they do at a location, rather than by their business model. For example, the BackCountry.com location in West Valley City is classified under warehousing since that location is a warehouse.

Back to the East

In the Eastern Region (Carbon, Duchesne, Daggett, Emery, Grand, San Juan, and Uintah counties) retail trade is correlated with commodity prices because of the areas reliance on mining. When prices are high there is more discretionary income in the community, therefore more retail sales; and, correspondingly, retail establishments expand to meet demand. The reverse happens when commodity prices decline, slowing the economy and reducing discretionary income, therefore lowering retail sales and potentially retail employment.

The commodity-dependent industries can expand and shrink their employment in large quantities. When these industries’ employment increases, so then does retail trade employment. But commodity-dependent industries can grow so rapidly that their share of total employment also grows rapidly. Even though retail trade employment goes up, it does not grow as rapidly; and, therefore, retail’s share of total employment actually declines.

Retail sales in the Eastern Region also differ from the national archetype because of broadband internet usage. The Pew Research center estimates that there is a 10 percent “gap” in broadband access between urban and rural internet users. This impacts the ability of Eastern Region residents to purchase goods on-line and forces them to rely on “brick and mortar” stores.

The composition of the retail trade labor force in the Eastern Region is now different than for the state as a whole. Utah’s retail trade labor force has greyed significantly over the past 15 years. In 2001, 11 percent of the labor force was under 18 while 8 percent was older than 55. As of 2016, only 3 percent of the sector’s labor force was under 18 while 16 percent was over 55. Unlike the state as a whole, the age composition of the Eastern Region has remained unchanged from 2001; the share for workers under 18 was, and still is, 13 percent. The analogous figure for workers older than 55 is 26 percent.

Conclusions

Traditionally, “retail follows roof tops.” Retailers try hard not to oversaturate given an area’s population. It follows that the ratio of retail-employment-to-population should fall over time. Given internet competition, it takes more people to generate the same amount of retail sales. The state data seems to weakly support this hypothesis. The statewide share has fallen by 0.4 percentage points since 2001, hardly an indication of a “retail apocalypse.” Surprisingly, the share in the Eastern Region has fallen by 0.6 percentage points. Analysts speculate that the larger decline is influenced by incomes in the Eastern Region’s energy-based economy. Internet purchases are positively related to income, and energy economies have greater income than agricultural-based economies. Further, because of the internet, consumers in Vernal or Roosevelt has infinitely more choices than they did a decade ago.

Perhaps the state’s recent agreement with Amazon will be helpful in unraveling this puzzle. Amazon recently established a nexus with the state of Utah and therefore became obligated to collect Utah sales taxes. Amazon reportedly captured 33 percent of all U.S. online purchases in 2015, according to the magazine Internet Retailer, up from 25 percent in 2012. In response to this development, revenue estimators for Salt Lake County have added a half percentage point to their estimate for 2017 sales tax collections. It will be interesting to see how Amazon’s actions will impact the Eastern Region.

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[1] OECD Glossary of Statistical Terms.

[2] U.S. Census Bureau

Census Bureau Tool Provides Labor-Force Insight for Utah

Across the United States, jobs are quantified through each state’s unemployment insurance program. Those programs provide the potential for laid-off workers to receive unemployment benefits — the goal being to bridge the gap between workers’ lost jobs and their next jobs. An eligible recipient’s weekly benefit amount is based upon their earnings from recent work. This begs the question, how does Utah’s unemployment insurance program know how much an individual recently earned while working?

That answer is supplied by all businesses that hire workers, as they must report their employees and pay as mandated by the unemployment insurance laws. Companies identify their individual workers and those workers’ monetary earnings for a calendar quarter. As businesses are identified by their industrial activity and geographic location, it is through the unemployment insurance program that aggregate employment counts by industry and location are calculated.

Yet each state’s profiling of individuals is quite minimal in the unemployment insurance program. The U.S. Census Bureau can bring more light to the overall labor force by supplementing said information with gender, age, race/ethnicity and educational attainment (imputted from American Community Survey responses) for Utah’s labor force.

The Census Bureau packages this information through their Local Employment Dynamics program and makes available said data on its website. Here at the Department of Workforce Services, we recently downloaded and packaged Utah-specific data from said website and summarized it in the attached visualization.

Various data “tabs” are available, presenting Utah’s economy from different angles, ranging from industry shares within the economy to the age-group distributions of the labor force, to gender and race distributions. These labor variables can be viewed for the state as a whole, or by each individual county.

Some statewide highlights:

Industry — industrial distribution is quite diverse, which provides strength within the economy. Distributions do fluctuate with time, with manufacturing seeing its share lessen while health care and professional and business services shares have increased.

Age — the bulk of Utah’s labor force is composed of 25- to 44-year-olds. Older worker shares have increased over the past 15 years, yet still remain a non-dominant portion of Utah’s labor force. The youngest segments of the labor force declined noticeably during the Great Recession due to less participation, and that trend remains.

Educational Attainment — turnover rates are understandably highest with workers under the age of 25 as they strive to build their educational foundation and also find their niche in the labor market. A trend does stand out where the more education that a worker attains, the lower the turnover rate businesses experience from said educational classes.

Race/Ethnicity — Whites account for around 80 percent of Utah’s labor force. The Asian community is small but slowly increasing in share, and is also characterized with the lowest turnover rate and the highest new-hire wages.

Gender — males comprise about 55 percent of Utah’s labor force. The female share of 45 percent is higher than the national average. Roughly 35 percent of working females work part-time compared to 15 percent for males. Therefore, female new-hire wages are considerably lower than male new-hire wages. (Note: employer reporting into the unemployment insurance system is not hourly wage rate reporting but instead total calendar quarter wages paid. Therefore, calculations can only be made upon total quarterly wages, and part-time employment weakens this measure).

As for the various counties in the region, here are some labor highlights:

Grand The share of leisure and hospitality sector jobs has grown since 2000. In 2000, the share was 40 percent. It increased to 46 percent in 2015. Public administration jobs became a smaller part of the economy as its share decreased slightly from 5 percent to 4 percent. The share of construction jobs has shrunk. In 2000, the share was 8 percent. In 2015, the share had decreased to 5 percent. The age of the workforce has increased markedly. In 2000, 32 percent of the workforce was 25 or younger. The current share is 19 percent. Paradoxically, the share of workers with a high school diploma or less has actually increased. In 2000, this group comprised 41 percent of employment. The 2016 number is 32 percent. The workforce, while still overwhelmingly white, has become more diverse. The minority share of jobs grew from 15 to 20 percent between 2000 and 2015.

San Juan Trade has shrunk as a share of total jobs. In 2000, trade jobs made up 13 percent of the base. That number had decreased to 7 percent by 2015. Conversely, the health care sector has expanded dramatically. This sector has increased from 10 percent to 17 percent from 2000 to 2015, In 2000, 30 percent of the workforce was 25 or younger. The current share is 19 percent. However, unlike most other eastern Utah counties, the share of workers with a high school diploma or less has remained relatively stable.

The word 'Utah' means 'top of the mountains' and is derived from the Ute Indian language." --From a Utah tourist brochure dated June 1955.

"The word 'Utah originated with the people inhabiting that region..of the Utah nation, which belongs to the Shoshone family. There were many tribes...There were the Pah Utes...and many others. Pah signifies water. ...Pah Utes, Indians that live about the water." --from Hubert H. Bancroft's "History of Utah." published in 1964.

"Utah comes from the Ute tribe and means 'people of the mountains." --From the Information Please 1994 almanac.

"Utah -- from a Navajo word meaning upper, or higher up, as applied to a Shoshone tribe called Ute. Spanish form is Yutta. English is Uta or Utah." --From The 1979 World Almanac and Book of Facts.

These quotes compiled by the Utah Education Network website show that we are still not sure where the  state’s name came from but fairly certain that it originated with the state’s indigenous peoples. There are roughly 32 thousand Native Americans in Utah, or a little over 1 percent of the population.

There are eight federally recognized Indian tribes in the state:

·         Confederated Tribes of the Goshute Reservation (Nevada and Utah)

·         Navajo Nation (Arizona, New Mexico and Utah)

·         Northwestern Band of Shoshoni Nation 

·         Paiute Indian Tribe of Utah  (Cedar Band of Paiutes, Kanosh Band of Paiutes, Koosharem Band of Paiutes, Indian Peaks Band of Paiutes, and Shivwits Band of Paiutes)

·         Skull Valley Band of Goshute Indians of Utah

·         Ute Indian Tribe of the Uintah and Ouray Reservation

·         Ute Mountain Ute Tribe (Colorado, New Mexico and Utah)

These tribes are distributed across the breadth of Utah with concentrations in the eastern and southwestern parts of the state. There is also is significant Native American presence along the Wasatch front population centers.

The Department of Workforce Services has just published an interactive graphic detailing demographic information about Utah’s Native American population. The visualization has six tabs. Unlike other department graphic tools, it has a principal focus on raw numbers rather than proportions because of the huge disparity in populations at the county level. For example there are thousands of Native Americans in San Juan County but only one person in Rich County.

The first tab presents median earnings defined as compensation from all employment plus other sources of income. This is a useful measure when comparing the income of workers who may receive non-wage income from the sales of agricultural products or bonus income from the sale of tribal natural resources. The number of counties is limited because of the paucity of reliable data in counties with small Native American populations.  Statewide, full time males earn slightly less than their national counterparts. The same is true for female Native American Utahns. It must be noted that Utah tribes are geographically disadvantaged when compared to their Pacific and eastern peers; tribal seats are far from the major population areas and therefore unable to market their legal and cultural advantages as effectively.

The second tab shows veterans status by age. Native American Utahns are less likely to be former members of the armed forces.  For Utahns and the nation as a whole, younger people are much less likely to be veterans than their elders.

The third tab shows educational attainment, Here, the results are mixed. The distribution for male Utahns is about the same as for male Native Americans nationally; around 13 percent of males have college degrees and roughly 23 percent have not finished high schools. However only 11 percent of Utah females have college while the comparable national statistic is close to 13 percent  Further, Utah lags the national statistics with respect to the native American females without a high school; diploma by roughly two percentage points. 

Better, Faster, Smarter... Check out our new website design!

Go to: JOBS.UTAH.GOV/WI to check it out

Information is the treasure of the current age. The instant access to information since the advent of the Internet has transformed societies in ways that thousands of years prior had not. Information can lead to knowledge, and — with increased knowledge — better efficiencies and way of life. If information is vital, then the presentation of information has also risen to a prominent level. With this, the Utah Department of Workforce Services has made some organizational improvements to its economic webpages. Various economic data categories are not mutually exclusive, but we made an effort to compartmentalize economic data for a better organizational display and navigation. We also added a new feature area that taps into various national data elements and measurements from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), the database of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED’s added value is national — and Utah — economic indicators. More on FRED’s contribution below.

Depending on the subject, economic data can be categorized as either broad or specific. For example, the demographic makeup of an area and how that impacts an economic structure is a broad-subject approach. Conversely, a current monthly snapshot of the Utah economy, its job growth and unemployment rate is a more specific observation. Our economic webpage has four “portals” through which to “categorize” and search for information. One portal is broad, while the other three are more specific in nature.

Topic Portals

The monthly employment profile just mentioned is a specific topic and gets its own “portal,” entitled Employment Update. Here, the most current Utah economic performance can be explored and summarized. The information found here is what often gets cited in the local news media in reference to the current Utah job performance and unemployment rate.

The second specific “portal” is labeled Local Insights. This is a quarterly profile of the Utah economy down to a county level. Each county is summarized with its own economic performance, including job growth, unemployment rate, housing starts, taxable sales and other profile variables. The common theme here is a county-specific approach.

The third specific “portal” is Reports and Analysis. Workforce Services’ economic forte is the labor market. Things over and above the everyday reporting on the labor market are presented here. Sometimes we do special economic studies, other times we will report on specific economic groups within the labor force, like women or veterans. Anything we do that is not an often repeated or ongoing report are grouped here.

The final “portal,” and possibly the one that will be most used, is labeled Economic Data. The core of our data collection and analysis is concentrated here. Employment data, occupational data, wage information and demographic profiles are just some of the major economic themes found in this area.

FRED's on site

As mentioned earlier, we have added an economic indicator area tapping into FRED, which is a massive compilation of economic data from various sources — primarily government statistical agencies, but also some nongovernmental organizations. Workforce Services economists have gone through the list and selected a handful of the most useful data series for gauging the performance of Utah’s macro economy and gaining insights into expected trends. Utah functions within the national economy, so the national economic indicators profiled here are intended to also be guiding influences on the Utah economy. These indicators include composite indexes; a recession probability indicator; leading indicators, such as construction permits and the yield curve; coincident indicators, such as real GDP and employment; and price indicators, such as the consumer price index, regional housing prices, and oil and gas prices. Each chart has a detailed description of what the data represent and how they may be useful.

Keeping relevant with the fast-changing pace of the Internet and data presentation is our goal at Workforce Services. We hope these changes help to better present our broad package of economic data offerings.

How Business is Organized in Utah and in Southeastern Utah

Utah has a diversified economy meaning employment is spread out across many industries. Some industries, like banking, tend to have many employees spread among many locations. Others, like hospitals, tend to cluster around a single location. “Mom and Pop” restaurants and law offices usually have one location and a small number of employees.The Department of Workforce Services has constructed an interactive data tool to flesh out these relationships. It uses data collected through Utah’s Unemployment Insurance system. This system produces a comprehensive tabulation of employment and wage information for workers covered by Utah Unemployment Insurance laws and Federal workers covered by the Unemployment Compensation for Federal Employees program.

The program makes two key definitions important for this analysis:

• A firm, or a company, is a business and may consist of one or more establishments, where each establishment may participate in different predominant economic activity. 
• An establishment is an economic unit, such as a farm, mine, factory, or store that produces goods or provides services. It is typically at a single physical location address and engaged in one, or predominantly one type of economic activity for which a single industry classification may be applied. 

As an example, Wells Fargo is a firm. Its branch locations are establishments.

The visualization’s first tab makes an important generalization about where people work. A typical Utahn is employed at a large company and works at a location employing 20–250 people.

The second tab shows that larger locations generally pay more than smaller locations. The prominent exception, of course, is shown in the 1-4 employer category. Analyst speculate that the large average wage is due to tax reasons. Sometimes there is a financial advantage in a sole proprietor (which of course would report as one location only) claiming his/herself as an employee. Again, these sort of tax vehicles would benefit higher earning professionals.

Tab 3 shows the percentage of total wages and employment sorted by location size. As expected from the distribution of employment, the bulk of the state’s wages are paid by locations employing 20-250 people with a sizable contribution coming from locations employing more than 1000. However, locations employing more than 100 workers contribute five percent in wages more than their employment would suggest. Schools, universities, and hospitals would be included in this employment range and generally pay higher wages.

The fourth and last tab focuses on firms (companies) by time. Here the results are unambiguous; these firms employ the biggest share of workers. However, it is interesting to note that firms employing 10-49 employees rank third in terms of share. These firms are commonly thought of as small businesses.

Southeast Region 

 Because of confidentiality problems, it is problematic to separate firm data by county. Data is suppressed to protect the identity, or identifiable information, of cooperating employers. Most of the suppressed data are provided by or are substantially attributable to an individual employer. In many cases, suppressions may also be necessary for otherwise disclosable data that may be used to derive sensitive information from another industry or area. However it is widely understood that employment in the region is dominated by government and tourism.

An examination of the Average Monthly Wages by Establishment Size tab (Tab 2) for Grand County shows that larger establishments tend to pay more than smaller establishments. Analysts believe this is attributable to government and health care jobs. On average, establishments pay less than their statewide counterparts. This generalization is also true in San Juan County. It is worth emphasizing that that difference is most pronounced for establishments employing 1-4 persons. Analysts speculate that this is because of the relative lack of small professional businesses in rural areas such as accounting and law firms.

The Quarterly Employment and Wages by Establishment Size (Tab 3) shows employment and wage share by establishment size. As noted above, locations with employment greater than 100 make up 45 percent of total state employment but contribute 50 percent of all wages. In Grand County, locations employing more than 100 workers total 10 percent of employment and contribute 13 percent of county wages. The analogous numbers for San Juan County are 16 percent for employment and 17 percent of total wages. On the small side of the spectrum, locations with less than 10 employees make up 13 percent of statewide employment and contribute 12 percent of wages. In Grand County, these locations make up 24 percent of the employment base and contribute 26 percent of wages. Grand is the only county in eastern Utah where the smallest establishments contribute wages out of proportion to their employment share and it is puzzling considering the relatively low average wage for establishments in this range. In contrast, establishments in San Juan County employing less than 10 workers comprise 18 percent of total employment but only contribute 16 percent of total wages. This again is due to the relative scarcity of small professional firms such as accounting and law firms.

Older Utahns in Grand County

The Department of Workforce Services has just published an interactive graphic on older Utahns. Based on 2015 Census Bureau data, it allows researchers (and the simply curious) to “drill down” to the county level.

Roughly 15 percent of the state’s population is age 60 and older. Further, workers age 55 and older make up 17 percent of the labor force. As the population “greys”, the economic importance of older Utahns will naturally become of greater importance. The Deseret News recently reported that in 2015 there were 337 people in Utah over the age of 100. In 50 years, there will be nearly 7,000.
As an example of the information available and the potential for insights, this post will focus on Grand County.

The visualization has six profile segmentations, each represented by a “tab” above the graphs that one can click on. The first tab is a statewide overview of Utahns age 60 and older. From this the reader can generalize that about half of older Utahns still receive taxable income (either passive or active) and/or retirement income. Around 5 percent qualify for some form of public assistance. The typical older Utahn owns his or her home, is married, and speaks English.

The second tab shows unemployment rates by county and age. Older working age Grand County residents experience lower unemployment than the state as a whole, although the relationship reverses when for the post 65 year old cohort.

Tab three shows that this rate is real rather than ephemeral; the labor participation rates up to age 62 are significantly higher than statewide. After age 62, the comparison reverses; older Grand County males are then less likely to participate in the labor force. This pattern seems to be consistent throughout Eastern Utah. Analysts believe that that the higher participation for workers under age 62 are out of necessity; private sector jobs that provide retirement plans are not as common in rural areas. The lower participation rates after age 62 could be a function of the availability of social security and the more physical nature of occupations in rural areas.

The fourth tab shows the older population sorted by poverty level which is $11,670 for an individual. Poverty is much more common in the county than it is statewide. The proportion of residents at the highest end of the scale (more than 400 percent of poverty or $46,680) is less in the county than statewide for older Utahns in the age 55 to 64 cohort but almost exactly the same for the retirement age cohorts. This is most likely a function of migration; urban retirees are drawn to the area and skew the profile toward the statewide statistics.

The fifth tab displays insurance coverage differentiated by educational attainment for older Utahns. Note that there is no display for persons without coverage; due to Medicare, that number is statistically zero for both Grand County and the state as a whole for persons over age 65. Give the inferred prevalence of urban retirees, it is not surprising that so many Grand County residents over age 65 are covered by private insurance. Private insurance coverage also correlates with education. Better educated workers have better noncash benefits and would therefore prefer their private plan over the public options.

The sixth and final tab shows disability rates for older Utahns. Disability rates for Grand County resident are generally the same as for older Utahns statewide. It is somewhat puzzling to observe that the county rates for the age 75 and older cohorts are similar to the state’s. Given, the absence of substantial medical infrastructure, one who assume that disabled county residents would leave the area and therefore depress the disability rate.

Show Me the Economy

Mark Knold, Supervising Economist 

“The government knows everything about everyone.”

 Fortunately, that statement is not true. Yet society still looks to the government to provide answers to comprehensive and complex questions that have their foundation within individual decisions and activities. One subject frequently directed toward the government is individual-level information about the economy — particularly, what occupations are in demand, what occupations pay well and have lucrative outlooks, and ultimately, what occupation(s) should I build my career upon?

It takes the accumulation of a wide array of individual information to answer these questions. Employers provide the foundation information about the occupations they employ. Jobs are held by individuals, but employers provide the profile information about the job itself, not any particular individual.

Since society desires to profile such a broad spectrum of the economy — occupational profiles and the occupational distribution within the economy — only government is in the unique position to collect, analyze and provide answers for said desire. Yet, no government program or regulatory agency mandates any comprehensive occupational reporting from individuals or businesses. Therefore, government attempts to fill the void with an ongoing, robust and voluntary survey of employers — a survey where employers are asked to provide details about their various occupations; including descriptions, quantities, wages/salaries and location. Through this survey emerges an occupational portrait of an economy.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) structures and funds the survey, yet the individual states conduct the survey. Under BLS administration, all states use the same methodology; therefore, occupational profiles are comparable across states.

Through this survey, analysts discover how industries are populated with various occupations. Accountant is an occupation, yet accountants can be found across many different industries. Other occupations may be more exclusive to certain industries; for example, doctors are largely found only in the healthcare industry. One of the survey’s products is that industries can be profiled with their general mix of occupations. This is called an industry’s occupational staffing pattern.

This brings us back to the original questions: what occupations are in demand, what occupations pay well and have lucrative outlooks, and ultimately, what occupation(s) should I build my career upon? The foundation is to make informed forecasts about how industries will expand/contract over the next 10 years. By applying existing occupational staffing patterns to each industry’s projected change, a trained economic analyst can then make an extrapolation about how occupations will correspondingly increase/decrease. Knowledgeable analyst judgment further refines the occupational expectations, such as knowing an occupation will grow faster than in the past, with the result being a set of occupational projections that accumulate to profile a state or regional economy.

A new set of occupational projections are done every two years to keep the information fresh even though economies do not change dramatically in short order. Because of slow change, updated occupational projects generally continue the overall message of preceding occupational projections. But economies do modify with time, and therefore, subtle changes will arise with each new set of occupational projections.

Utah’s most recent occupational projections are found here: http://www.jobs.utah.gov/wi/pubs/outlooks/state/index.html. These projections look forward to the year 2024.

The occupational profile is structured from the general to the detailed, mimicking the structure of a family tree. First, broad occupational categories are defined, such as management or healthcare occupations; then, subcategories are defined; and finally, individual occupations are defined. Individual occupations are the heart of the occupational projections. But overall patterns and characteristics do emerge when observing the broader categories.

While a Utah statewide profile leads the way, Utah’s local economies are not homogenous; therefore, nine Utah subregions are also profiled. Due to confidentiality restraints and statistical reliability, the amount of occupations available will diminish the smaller a subregion; but, occupations comprising the backbone of a regional economy will be available.

Eastern Region Highlights

Scott Smith, Regional Economist

The Eastern Region labor market is dominated by resource extraction industries. Roughly 15 percent of all 2014 jobs (the base year for the projections) are counted in the mining sector. A further 4 percent are involved in the short haul trucking industry — businesses that are almost exclusively hauling coal, oil and gas-related products. Alternately, a little more than half the jobs in the Eastern Region are located in the oil-rich Uintah Basin. Employment in Uintah and Duchesne counties is highly dependent on the price of oil and subject to the volatility of the commodity cycle. It is an understatement to note that the oil and gas industry is currently in a slump. In addition, Carbon and Emery counties both have a relatively large number of active coal mines, an industry facing its own challenges.

Given these headwinds, Eastern Region employment is projected to grow by only 0.8 percent annually through 2024. Total oil and gas employment is projected to grow at 0.1 percent annually. Coal mining employment is expected to decline by 1.3 percent annually. Construction, which is currently 6 percent of the total jobs, is naturally expected to follow this trend and is projected to increase by only 0.3 percent annually.

Table 1 shows the top six sectors in terms of new jobs. These 2,546 jobs comprise a little more than 60 percent of the projected Eastern Region total.

 With the exception of Junior Colleges and Restaurants and Eating Places, growth is expected to be sluggish.

Occupations related to the restaurant industry are expected to add the greatest number of net new jobs. Combined food preparation/serving workers and waiters/waitresses are expected to add more than 13 percent of net new jobs over the forecast horizon. The entry level salary for these jobs range from $16,888 to $17,010.
While cashiers are expected to add a substantial number of jobs annually, the total number of jobs is expected to shrink over the forecast horizon. The high number of annual openings is entirely a function of turnover. Entry level cashier jobs in the Eastern Region pay $17,220.

Heavy truck drivers are expected to add almost 5 percent of net new jobs. These jobs pay $39,400 to start and require some post-secondary education.

For occupations requiring at least a bachelor’s degree, the teaching occupations generate the largest number of net new positions. These jobs are projected to comprise 10 percent of all net new jobs. The vast number of these jobs are involved in primary or secondary education and start around the mid-$30,000.