Grand County Economic Update

Tyson Smith, Regional Economist

The Utah Department of Workforce Services (DWS) relies on several data sources to help describe the state of the economy. The most accurate data available is the nonfarm payroll employment information that is collected through the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. However, the resources required to gather data accurately come at the expense of timeliness, which results in a four to six month lag between the time these data are collected and when they are available to the public.

Other data are collected in a timelier manner, and these data (along with historical trends) provide a foundation to estimate current economic conditions. Economists at DWS rely heavily upon statistical models, surveys, and limited datasets to evaluate the economy in real-time. Some of those tools, like the county unemployment rates and initial weekly unemployment claims, are highlighted in this article.

The truth is that no single source of economic data exists that can appropriately profile the labor market in real-time. So, when evaluating regional economies it is important to understand the recent economic history of the area, while also using any up-to-date information available despite the limitations of present data.

San Juan County Economic Update

Tyson Smith, Regional Economist

The Utah Department of Workforce Services (DWS) relies on several data sources to help describe the state of the economy. The most accurate data available is the nonfarm payroll employment information that is collected through the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. However, the resources required to gather data accurately come at the expense of timeliness, which results in a four to six month lag between the time these data are collected and when they are available to the public.

Other data are collected in a timelier manner, and these data (along with historical trends) provide a foundation to estimate current economic conditions. Economists at DWS rely heavily upon statistical models, surveys, and limited datasets to evaluate the economy in real-time. Some of those tools, like the county unemployment rates and initial weekly unemployment claims, are highlighted in this article.

The truth is that no single source of economic data exists that can appropriately profile the labor market in real-time. So, when evaluating regional economies it is important to understand the recent economic history of the area, while also using any up-to-date information available despite the limitations of present data.

Grand County Economic Update

Regional payroll employment shrinks slightly in the third quarter

Tyson Smith, Regional Economist

Broad-based economic growth does not always portend positive economic conditions in every community. Utah has seen significant labor market expansion over the last four years, growing at an annual rate of about 3 percent since 2011. And yet, economic recovery in the Southeast region has been less than consistent.

The two counties in the Southeast region – Grand and San Juan – have moved in opposite directions since 2011. Grand County has been consistently adding employment over the last four years except for a brief period in 2013. San Juan County has consistently shed employment during the same period, except for a nine-month window from mid-2013 to early 2014. 

Grand County

• Grand County has been the exception among the Castle Country and Southeast counties in terms of payroll employment growth. The 2.9 percent year-over job growth in third quarter 2014 was above the state average, and the county has been consistently adding employment since July of 2013. On average, the county added 158 jobs from third quarter 2013 to third quarter 2014. The educational/health/social services and professional services industries were the big contributors, adding 70 and 46 employees, respectively. 
• The recent momentum in the county’s labor market has had a dramatic effect on the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, which has fallen from 7.1 percent in December 2013 to 5.7 percent in December. However, the 5.7 percent represents an upturn since September, and is still notably higher than the Utah average (3.5 percent). 
• The recent rise in the county’s unemployment rate is not reflected in the initial unemployment claims data. The number of initial weekly claims filed in the fourth quarter of 2014 was down 23.5 percent from 2013. Given the underlying trend of initial claims, the unemployment rate may stabilize in the short term.
• As the labor market continued its momentum in the third quarter of 2014, so did average wages in the county. Year-over average monthly wages grew 2.8 percent – or 1.3 percentage points faster than the Utah rate. The service-producing industries saw the largest increases, most notably in leisure/hospitality which increased average monthly wages 4 percent.
• Third quarter 2014 taxable sales in Grand County rose by 13.3 percent from 2013, the third largest increase in the state. Accommodation and mining sales increased more than any other industries in the county, improving $4.8 million and $1.3 million, respectively, from third quarter 2013. 

  

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San Juan County Economic Update

Regional payroll employment shrinks slightly in the third quarter

Tyson Smith, Regional Economist

Broad-based economic growth does not always portend positive economic conditions in every community. Utah has seen significant labor market expansion over the last four years, growing at an annual rate of about 3 percent since 2011. And yet, economic recovery in the Southeast region has been less than consistent.

The two counties in the Southeast region – Grand and San Juan – have moved in opposite directions since 2011. Grand County has been consistently adding employment over the last four years except for a brief period in 2013. San Juan County has consistently shed employment during the same period, except for a nine-month window from mid-2013 to early 2014.

San Juan County

• San Juan County’s employment growth continued to erode in the third quarter of 2014.  The county shed a quarterly average of 47 jobs from third quarter 2013 to third quarter 2014, or approximately 1.1 percent. This marked the second consecutive quarter of year-over job losses. The goods-producing industries – down 11.9 percent – accounted for the majority of the job losses. Mining employment fell 14 percent, which represents a quarterly average of 53 fewer jobs.
• As job growth stagnated in the county, unemployment remained relatively high. The rate settled at 8 percent in December (up from 7.8 percent in August), which is the third highest among Utah’s 29 counties. San Juan County’s unemployment rate is still markedly higher than both the state and national averages.   
• Fourth-quarter initial unemployment claims paint a more optimistic picture. During the last three months of 2014 the average number of initial weekly unemployment claims fell 24.6 percent from the same time last year. On the other hand, the first few weeks of 2015 show signs that the positive trend may be reversing as initial claims have risen by an average of five claims per week (up 53.2 percent from 2013).
• Average monthly wages in the county also declined slightly. Weakening in the service-providing industries, particularly retail trade and government contributed to falling wages. 
• Third quarter 2014 taxable sales in San Juan County fell 17 percent from third quarter 2013. The county experienced a drop in year-over taxable sales growth for the fourth time in the last five quarters. Taxable sales in mining/quarrying/oil and gas extraction fell by $3.5 million, more than any other industry. 

  

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San Juan County Economic Indicators

Despite the positive momentum across the state, the Castle Country and Southeast regions have scuffled to recover from the recession. Both regions felt the effects of the downturn in 2009, when the labor markets shed 202 and 283 jobs from the previous year, respectively. 2010 turned out to be the best year for the labor market in Castle Country since the recovery began. The Southeast region turned the corner in 2010 and has had uneven job growth since, though the first half of 2014 has shown signs of greater expansion. Some of the issues facing these economies are cyclical; while other challenges – like those facing the mining industry – are longer-term structural shifts in the economy.

• After a promising finish to 2013, San Juan County’s employment growth has dissipated.  The county shed a quarterly average of 19 jobs from second quarter 2013 to second quarter 2014, or approximately 0.5 percent. While losing 19 jobs is not cause for panic, this was the first quarter of year-over job losses since early 2013. The goods-producing industries – down 10.6 percent – accounted for the majority of the job losses. Manufacturing employment fell 26.2 percent, which represents a quarterly average of 48 fewer jobs.
• As job growth stagnated in the county, the unemployment rate ticked up slightly. The rate settled at 8.0 percent in September (up from 7.9 percent in August), which is the second highest among Utah’s 29 counties. San Juan County’s unemployment rate is still markedly higher than both the state and national averages.  
• Despite the increase in the supply of labor, average monthly wages rose slightly (up 0.2 percent) in the county. Growth in the service-providing industries, especially educational/health/social services and government, contributed rising wages. It also appears that some industries that reduced employment (construction and business/professional services) cut lower paying jobs, which skews average wages upward.
• Second quarter 2014 taxable sales in San Juan County fell 5.2 percent from second quarter 2013. The county experienced a drop in year-over taxable sales growth for the third time in the last four quarters.

Grand County Economic Indicators

Despite the positive momentum across the state, the Castle Country and Southeast regions have scuffled to recover from the recession. Both regions felt the effects of the downturn in 2009, when the labor markets shed 202 and 283 jobs from the previous year, respectively. 2010 turned out to be the best year for the labor market in Castle Country since the recovery began. The Southeast region turned the corner in 2010 and has had uneven job growth since, though the first half of 2014 has shown signs of greater expansion. Some of the issues facing these economies are cyclical; while other challenges – like those facing the mining industry – are longer-term structural shifts in the economy.

• Grand County has been the exception among the Castle Country and Southeast counties in terms of payroll employment growth. The 3.1 percent year-over job growth in first quarter 2014 was surpassed by job gains of 4.2 percent in the second quarter. On average the county added 225 jobs from second quarter 2013 to second quarter 2014. Leisure/hospitality and construction were the big contributors, adding 59 and 49 employees, respectively.
• The recent momentum in the county’s labor market has had a dramatic effect on the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate, which has fallen from 7 percent in January 2014 to 5 percent in September. While 5 percent is still notably higher than the Utah average (3.5 percent), the two percentage point decline represents 106 fewer people unemployed.
• As the labor market picked up steam in the second quarter of 2014, so too did average wages in the county. Year-over average monthly wages grew 2.3 percent, 0.6 percentage point faster than the Utah rate. The service-producing industries saw the largest increases, especially in leisure/hospitality which increased average monthly wages 6.3 percent.
• Second quarter 2014 taxable sales in Grand County increased by the largest proportion of any county in the state, jumping 22.5 percent from 2013. Accommodation and mining increased sales by the more than any other industries in the county, improving $6 million and $3.4 million, respectively from second quarter 2013.